How TrackBTC works · Price Layers13 min read

Bitcoin’s Largest Holders Move Markets.
We Make Their Moves Visible.

When major holders move Bitcoin from long-term safekeeping toward potential distribution—or put it back into storage—the change matters. TrackBTC makes those changes visible over time, showing the scale, direction, and destinations of their movements.

Our September reports covered large-holder wallets holding 7.29 million BTC. Their storage choices matter to the supply available to trade.

A large buyer can take Bitcoin out of the supply available to trade. A large seller can add supply and put pressure on price.

TrackBTC follows changes in the balances and transfer histories of large-holder wallets. Price Layers show how much Bitcoin arrived or left within each market-price range.

These anonymous examples follow two exchange-associated reserves and a Bitcoin treasury. A wallet group combines addresses linked through transaction evidence.

For treasury, exchange operations, and market analysis teams, the question is whether a major source of Bitcoin has changed its behavior.

Follow what left storage, where the wallet sent it, and what remained held.

01 · Funds moving out

An exchange reserve sent out
almost everything.

An exchange-associated reserve sent no BTC in October 2025. In November, it sent roughly 32,909 BTC and finished with only 2,368 BTC.

A reserve holds funds apart from day-to-day payments. When most of those funds leave, the operating picture changes.

Start with the balance, then ask where the money went. That separates a large movement from a useful explanation.

The balance

Most of the reserve left in one month.

31 October 202535,277 BTC
30 November 20252,368 BTC

The balance fell from 35,277 BTC to 2,368 BTC. That is a substantial release from this reserve.

See the figures
Exchange reserve · Monthly balance reconciliation · BTC
Opening balance, November35,277.26291830
Received in November0.00000000
Sent in November32,909.21000000
Network fees0.00143000
Closing balance, November2,368.05148830
The share

Picture every 100 BTC in that reserve.

93.3%of the opening balance left
About 93 leftAbout 7 remained

Almost the entire reserve moved. This was a change in how the funds were being held, rather than a small withdrawal.

Each square represents about 1% of the opening balance. The balance reduction includes network fees.

The timing

The reserve sent no funds in October, then released 32,909 BTC in November.

  1. 35,031 BTC receivedAcross the five largest recorded incoming movements.
  2. 0 BTC sentThe month closed with 35,277 BTC in the reserve.
  3. 32,909 BTC sentThe balance dropped to 2,368 BTC.

The history makes the change visible: funds that were sitting in a reserve became active.

Selected dated observations; gaps between them are compressed. The five incoming movements are a subset of all incoming transfers.

Add the market context

At what price did the funds move?

A Price Layer groups BTC received and sent by a market-price reference. The historical examples use one reference for each UTC day.

Exchange-linked reserve · history through November 2025

Received around $55–60k.
Sent around $90–95k.

Market references in US dollars per BTC · amounts in BTC

BTC receivedBTC sent
$55,000–$60,000Daily market reference
35,126 BTC received
0 BTC sent
$90,000–$95,000Daily market reference
Less than 0.001 BTC received
32,909 BTC sent

The layers connect the change in storage strategy with the market levels around it.

Selected $5,000 bands from this reserve’s history through 30 November 2025. Each movement uses its UTC day’s reference, rather than an intraday quote. Sending-layer amounts include fees.

See the figures
Exchange reserve · Selected historical Price Layers · BTC
Reference-price rangeReceivedSent, including fees
$55,000–$60,00035,126.354114240.00000000
$90,000–$95,0000.0000033032,909.21143000
Follow the destination

Where did the Bitcoin go?

Two directly checked transfers took about 20,196 BTC to exchange-associated addresses.

The destinations

20,196 BTC reached exchange-associated addresses.

The exchange reserve sent32,909 BTCNovember 2025
20,196 BTCAddresses linked to exchangesTwo directly checked transfers
12,713 BTCRemaining outgoing valueDestinations outside these two checks

Two checked transfers placed 20,196 BTC at exchange-associated addresses, giving the team a concrete destination to examine.

Exchange attribution identifies the service associated with an address. These checks do not establish its hot-wallet role or an executed sale.

See the figures
Exchange reserve · November outgoing value · BTC
Verified exchange-associated destinations20,195.99000000
Other outgoing value12,713.22000000
Total sent, excluding fees32,909.21000000
Understand the storage choice

Storage is part of the strategy.

Institutional cold storage keeps signing keys offline for safekeeping. Hot wallets keep keys online to serve active operations.

Moving funds from long-term cold storage toward exchange hot wallets changes the posture toward potential distribution. Moving funds back into storage points toward longer-term holding.

Illustration · when the wallet roles are known

Where the funds sit
changes what they are ready for.

Long-term cold storageSafekeeping
Exchange hot walletsBuy / sell · withdrawals
Active walletsFunds in operation
Longer-term storageFunds put away

The roles of the sending and receiving wallets help explain the significance of a transfer.

This illustrates storage choices. The checked exchange destinations above have no established hot-wallet role.

An exchange can move reserves to fund customer withdrawals, meet jurisdictional requirements, or change its security arrangements. Its receiving wallet could belong to the same operator.

For your own wallets, payment instructions and wallet records establish the purpose. Public history supplies the amounts, timing, and relationships to compare against them.

02 · Funds staying put

A treasury held its January funds
through September.

A treasury-associated wallet received about 26,916 BTC in January 2026. At the end of September, it still held that amount, with no recorded outgoing BTC in its history.

One incoming transfer can be temporary. A history with no outgoing Bitcoin supports a much stronger observation: the funds remained in place.

Bitcoin treasury · January–September 2026

The treasury kept 26,916 BTC for eight months.

30,000 BTC0
26,916
Jan 2026
26,916
Apr 2026
26,916
Sep 2026
0 BTC sentAcross this wallet’s history through 30 September 2026

No outgoing Bitcoin was recorded through September, so the January funds remained in the wallet throughout that period.

Three published month-end observations. Small additional incoming amounts are below the displayed rounding; the January amount remained held.

See the figures
Bitcoin treasury · Published month-end balances · BTC
Jan 202626,916.22495951
Apr 202626,916.22496497
Sep 202626,916.22498274
Total BTC sent through September0.00000000

Watch both directions. A reserve released most of its funds. A treasury received funds and kept them for months.

For a treasury team, this answers a different question from “did money arrive?” It shows whether the selected wallet subsequently sent that money elsewhere.

The published January, April, and September balances are separate observations. The zero-outgoing history is what supports retention between them.

03 · What price adds

A second reserve emptied
when Bitcoin’s daily reference price was $62,752.

Another exchange-associated reserve went from 26,182 BTC to almost zero during August 2026. Its three largest August transfers happened within six minutes, with a $62,752 daily market reference.

The first reserve sent funds around $90–95k. This reserve became active around $63k. Price Layers show the market context of each change.

The individual movements

The reserve made its three largest August transfers
within six minutes.

1 August 2026 · UTC$62,752 daily market reference
1,337 BTC
19,632 BTC
5,138 BTC

A reserve becoming active is useful information at $63,000 as well as $93,000. Price Layers show the context of the change.

The selected movements include network fees. August’s total sent was 26,182 BTC, excluding fees. Each event uses the same UTC-day price reference; the displayed times are transaction times.

See the figures
Second exchange reserve · Selected movements, 1 August 2026 · UTC
TimeBTC, including feesReference USD
22:48:351,336.5905159862,751.88
22:54:2619,632.3288119762,751.88
22:54:265,137.8075256862,751.88

The largest movement in this burst was roughly 19,632 BTC. Seeing the individual times reveals a short operational episode inside the monthly total.

A market analyst can compare when different reserves become active. An operations team can match the same episode to its planned movements.

Both gain a dated account of what changed. The reference price supplies market context without establishing anyone’s purchase price, sale price, or profit.

04 · Why the scale matters

These choices involve
millions of Bitcoin.

The individual reserves hold tens of thousands of Bitcoin. September’s broader reports show why storage behavior deserves attention across the ecosystem.

The scale

Large holders held 7.29 million BTC
at September’s end.

September 2026 · Each bar starts at zero and uses the same 8 million BTC scale.

How much did large holders hold?7.29 million BTC at September’s close.
How much older Bitcoin stayed in quiet reserves?5.36 million BTC held for at least 90 days.
How much newly received Bitcoin stayed?800,612 BTC received in September and still unspent at its close.

Large-holder balances, older reserves, and newly received funds still held answer three different questions. Together they explain why storage behavior matters beyond one headline transfer.

These measures can overlap and must not be added. This measure covers groups retaining at least 1 BTC received from other groups during September, including smaller holders. This is not net balance growth.

Quiet reserves keep at least 90% of their balance in amounts held for 90 days or longer. Their monthly movement stays within 10% of opening balance.

October 2025–September 2026

How the monthly totals changed
from October 2025 to September 2026

Compare older Bitcoin in quiet reserves with newly received funds still held at each month-end. These measure different parts of the storage picture.

Older funds staying quiet

Millions of older Bitcoin
stayed in quiet reserves.

Sep 20265,363,047 BTC held at least 90 days
Older Bitcoin in qualifying quiet reserves, by monthMonthly values from October 2025 to September 2026, with a zero baseline. Each month has its own qualifying groups. Exact values are available in the table below. 0m2m4m6m Oct 2025: 5,285,301 BTCOctNov 2025: 4,258,185 BTCNovDec 2025: 4,183,205 BTCDecJan 2026: 4,147,128 BTCJanFeb 2026: 5,024,845 BTCFebMar 2026: 5,089,275 BTCMarApr 2026: 5,226,543 BTCAprMay 2026: 5,298,752 BTCMayJun 2026: 5,396,691 BTCJunJul 2026: 5,399,260 BTCJulAug 2026: 5,467,879 BTCAugSep 2026: 5,363,047 BTCSep 20252026

The twelve monthly totals range from 4.15 to 5.47 million BTC. Older Bitcoin remains a large part of these quiet reserves throughout the period.

The line connects completed monthly totals. Each month has its own qualifying population; this is not the balance history of a fixed set of holders.

See all twelve months
Older Bitcoin in quiet reserves · Monthly totals
MonthBTC held at least 90 daysQualifying groups
Oct 20255,285,301.075138731,625
Nov 20254,258,185.378673281,252
Dec 20254,183,204.531067031,200
Jan 20264,147,127.807960631,197
Feb 20265,024,844.719455991,531
Mar 20265,089,275.131466021,562
Apr 20265,226,543.448927451,585
May 20265,298,752.439400141,654
Jun 20265,396,691.211237911,652
Jul 20265,399,259.764071481,639
Aug 20265,467,879.479495991,585
Sep 20265,363,046.656413971,563
New funds staying put

How much newly received Bitcoin
remained unspent at each month-end

Sep 2026800,612 BTC newly received and still held
Newly received Bitcoin still held at each month-endTwelve monthly bars from October 2025 to September 2026, from a zero baseline. November 2025 was the highest at about 2.03 million BTC. These amounts were received during each month and remain unspent at its end; they do not measure net balance growth. 0.0m0.5m1.0m1.5m2.0m2.5m Oct 2025: 1,194,603 BTCOctNov 2025: 2,029,415 BTCNovDec 2025: 1,186,073 BTCDecJan 2026: 979,436 BTCJanFeb 2026: 851,418 BTCFebMar 2026: 675,318 BTCMarApr 2026: 650,862 BTCAprMay 2026: 597,503 BTCMayJun 2026: 666,732 BTCJunJul 2026: 730,263 BTCJulAug 2026: 996,054 BTCAugSep 2026: 800,612 BTCSep 20252026

November had the largest amount received and still held at month-end, about 2.03 million BTC. September’s total was about 800,612 BTC, across its own qualifying population.

BTC received from outside the wallet group during each month and still unspent at its close. Qualifying groups have at least 1 BTC of these incoming funds. A group can also send older funds during the same month, so this is not net accumulation.

See all twelve months
Newly received funds still held · Monthly totals
MonthBTC received and still heldQualifying groups
Oct 20251,194,603.0951777142,453
Nov 20252,029,414.8614450440,924
Dec 20251,186,072.8538635637,221
Jan 2026979,435.5326075335,294
Feb 2026851,417.9629805038,303
Mar 2026675,318.3234178628,554
Apr 2026650,862.2177543429,406
May 2026597,502.7844104028,499
Jun 2026666,732.1061676435,708
Jul 2026730,262.7339075634,997
Aug 2026996,054.0508396656,511
Sep 2026800,612.2201572736,896

The monthly populations change. A fall in the total cannot establish that the same holders sold or moved the difference.

To understand one holder, follow its own history, as in the reserve and treasury examples. Use the aggregate charts to understand the broader storage picture.

05 · How we build the history

How we connect each transfer
to balances and earlier activity

Bitcoin records spent funds and newly created outputs, the amounts a later transaction can spend. Useful intelligence requires connecting those records across time.

TrackBTC builds dated balances, incoming and outgoing histories, and wallet groups linked through transaction evidence.

A wallet group is a unit for following activity. Its relationship to an organization comes from separate attribution evidence.

Illustration · building Price Layers

How transfers are grouped
by their market reference price

  1. Follow the funds.Connect incoming funds, spending, and balances for the selected wallet group over time.
  2. Add the reference price.Match each historical movement to the reference price for its UTC day.
  3. Group similar prices.Total incoming and outgoing BTC separately within each price range.

The result shows how much arrived or left at each market level. The receiving and sending directions remain separate.

The historical examples use $5,000 ranges. These describe movements, rather than the purchase price of coins currently held.

The work includes tracking which received amounts remain unspent, reconciling balances with fees, and keeping the selected wallet membership consistent within each comparison.

Monthly reports use the addresses assigned to a wallet group at that month’s close. This gives their historical comparisons a consistent set of addresses.

It does not reconstruct which addresses or owners were known at every earlier moment. Each published month keeps its own observation boundary.

We retain the amounts, dates, direction, balances, and price references needed to reproduce these views. The selected published reports remain the source of these examples.

The State Transition Engine article explains how we build this connected history across Bitcoin’s records.

06 · Use it with your team

Be the team that can
explain the change.

A useful finding leaves your team with a clear next step. Start with the question, then bring the relevant history and local records together.

Illustration · questions to review together

Turn a large movement
into a decision your team can explain.

Treasury team

Did a major reserve change?

Compare its earlier balance, amount sent, and destinations. Decide whether its new behavior changes your liquidity planning.

Exchange operations

Was the receiving wallet expected?

Match the movement to your withdrawal, jurisdiction, and security arrangements. Resolve the wallet role using your own records.

Risk and security teams

Can we explain what changed?

Bring the dated history, supporting transfers, and open questions to the review. Record what your team validated and decided.

The history supports your team’s judgment. Your operational records establish the purpose and the appropriate response.

Public alerts provide selected examples of activity. Explore the public alerts to see the evidence available without an account.

Our private Intelligence and monthly reports provide wallet histories and comparisons of balances, transfers and counterparties. Contact us about report access for your team.

For a question specific to your operation, choose one workflow for a six-week shadow pilot. We agree the records, cases, and success criteria together.

Historical replay and shadow evaluation let your team review findings alongside its existing work. Transactions, private wallet context, and policies remain in your environment.

The pilot does not change transaction authorization. Its final report records what was checked, what your team validated, and which decisions followed.

That gives colleagues and executives concrete evidence of the work your team initiated. Any joint publication or public acknowledgment requires separate agreement after verification.

Where the numbers come fromSources, exact definitions, and how to read the figures

These anonymous examples use TrackBTC’s completed production reports for October 2025 through September 2026, checked on 19 October 2026. The source review matched all twelve files against their recorded sizes, SHA-256 hashes, and the production catalog available on that date. The same selected wallet identity is followed across the months cited in each individual example. Charts round BTC amounts for readability; expandable tables provide exact amounts.

The November reserve’s destination example also uses two directly checked Bitcoin transfers and sourced exchange associations. Names and addresses are omitted. The examples show observed movements, balances, and storage behavior; they do not establish sales or predict the market.

Quiet reserves are large holdings with at least 90% in amounts held for 90 days or longer. Monthly movement stays within 10% of opening balance. The older-funds history counts the older BTC in those reserves. Historical Price Layers use $5,000 bands and daily market references. The four-hour reports use bands 1,000 US dollars wide and the BTC/USD closing price for the UTC hour containing each movement.

September’s scale chart covers 1,982 large-holder wallet groups and 1,563 qualifying quiet reserves. Newly received funds still held cover 36,896 qualifying groups, including smaller holders.

This measure counts Bitcoin received from outside a wallet group and still unspent at month-end. Qualifying groups have at least 1 BTC of these incoming funds.

The historical Price Layers shown here include fees in sending amounts; monthly sent totals exclude them. Four-hour directional layers use flows that exclude fees.

Read our attribution and calculation methodology for how we connect addresses, organisations, and market-reference prices.

Trading size affects price through the buyers and sellers available in the market. Read the explanation of market liquidity and price impact.